Bayesian networks for enterprise risk assessment

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover qualitative data must be converted in numerical values to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Network is a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a Bayesian networks in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states

Strade: costi, opportunità e tutela dell’ambiente

Per raggiungere gli obiettivi di sostenibilità, è necessario rivedere l’intero sistema di governo del territorio ottimizzando, in un’ottica federalista, ruoli, poteri e risors

Intrinsic gap and exciton condensation in the nu_T=1 bilayer system

We investigate the quasiparticle excitation of the bilayer quantum Hall (QH) system at total filling factor $\nu_{\mathrm{T}} = 1$ in the limit of negligible interlayer tunneling under tilted magnetic field. We show that the intrinsic quasiparticle excitation is of purely pseudospin origin and solely governed by the inter- and intra-layer electron interactions. A model based on exciton formation successfully explains the quantitative behavior of the quasiparticle excitation gap, demonstrating the existence of a link between the excitonic QH state and the composite fermion liquid. Our results provide a new insight into the nature of the phase transition between the two states.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

An integrated approach project for the revaluation of a traditional sourdough bread production chain

The influence of organic and conventional farming systems on the performance of a panel of old and modern Italian bread wheat varieties has been evaluated, with the aim to individuate an agronomic protocol suitable for the production of a sourdough bread traditionally prepared in a hill zone of Emilia-Romagna. The agronomic and technological characterisation of the wheat samples obtained in organic and conventional farming conditions has been done and the sensorial qualities of the sourdough bread obtained have been evaluated

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Selection for DAG Models

We present two methodologies for Bayesian model choice and averaging in Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (dags). In both cases model determination is carried out by implementing a reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. The dimension-changing move involves adding or dropping a (directed) edge from the graph. The first methodology extends the results in Giudici and Green (1999), by excluding all non-moralized dags and searching in the space of their essential graphs. The second methodology employs the results in Geiger and Heckerman (1999) and searches directly in the space of all dags. To achieve this aim we rely on the concept of adjacency matrices, which provides a relatively inexpensive check for acyclicity. The performance of our procedure is illustrated by means of two simulated datasets

Sense Worldwide: Transforming the rules of innovation

This is part of a case series. This case series focuses on the complex sources of success of Sense Worldwide, a London-based creative agency, and its quest to adapt and change in tune with its environment to maintain its competitive advantage. It has been developed with a particular attention to introductory courses on strategic management, innovation and idea generation because it supports a complete analysis and integration between classic approaches to external analysis and more recent, internally oriented lens. Part (A) allows for a discussion of the context in the start-up phase and of the core competences and capabilities that helped it become successful. Part (A) can be used to assess Sense Worldwide’s strategy using popular themes such as industry analysis, SWOT analysis, the resource based view, and the dynamic capability view. Part (B) provides material for discussing the company`s method, its development over time and the consequences of external change on its business model. Part (B) can thus be used to show the dynamics of internal and external change by allowing for a comparison of Sense Worldwide’s evolution over time in terms of changing strategic positioning and key resources, processes and capabilities. Taken together, the two parts of the case series encourage in-depth discussion on focused topics such as starting up or business idea generation, co-creation and open innovation. It can also be used to discuss a more transversal theme such as knowledge creation